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Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the old day has independently advanced to the “second difficult period” of coal and electricity across the country and is deeply trapped in the mud pond. At the key points of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, coal and electricity enterprises are still not happy. Under the sudden outbreak of new and powerful new forces, is there any future for coal and electricity enterprises to break through?
(Source: WeChat public number “Motivation Magazine” ID: energymagazine Author: Chen Zongfa)
Recently, some research and development institutions, local departments and power enterprises have started the preparations for the “14th Five-Year Plan” of the power “14th Five-Year Plan”. The new planning foundation is unthinkable – In the future, my country will continue to promote green development and clean transformation, renewable power will continue to grow, and the power of high-carbon fossils will decrease in the night.
At this time, my country’s coal and electricity have not yet come out of the “second difficult period”. Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, my country’s coal and electricity business performance has fallen nimblely: “Hand on the slide” in 2016; “falling over the floor” in 2017; and “sitting up” in 2018. In addition to the inadequacy, the asset debt rate of the power generation group has been operating at a long-term high, although it has dropped from the highest level of 85% in 2008, and it is still close to 78% in 2018, with huge financial prices damaging the profits during the period.
Today, the overall coal and electricity enterprises in Yunqichuan, Northeast, Qinghai, Henan and other regions have been damaged. Some coal and electricity enterprises have not been liable for debts and are maintained with the group guarantee and entrusted loans. Some have even been shut down and destroyed. A small number of listed power companies have difficulty in their business performance, and are facing the risk of being ST and delisted.
This severe shape also appeared in the “first difficult period” in the history of coal-electricity from 2008 to 2011, with the cumulative amount of the five-year-old thermal power panels reaching 92.1 billion yuan. From 2012 to 2014, the thermal power operation situation has been changing year by year. In 2015, the industry performance was “topped” and entered the best period since the electricity reform in 2002.
Under the large-scale transformation of power cleansing, our country’s dynamic structure is constantly being optimized, and clean renewable power is developing rapidly. However, it has not yet been shaking the most basic level of “coal is based, coal-electricity is mainly used, and oil and gas is imported.” The power format of coal and coal electricity still have the main power.
Coal and electricity still have the advantage of “567” in the power structure. In 2018, my country’s power installation machines reached 1.9 billion kilowatts, of which: 1.01 billion coal-electrical engines account for 53%; when the coal-electrical engine power generation capacity is 44,500 million kilowatts, accounting for 64%; when the fuel cost accounts for 70% of the coal-electrical electricity generation costs.
In this case, I am a key point that has been planned for five years. How to solve the unprecedented confusion and embarrassment in the current era, find a new positioning in the modern dynamic system, In the guaranteed balance, the little girl wrapped her cat with a towel and put it into the cap, and practiced the efficient application and high-quality preservation and development of coal and electricity cleaning, which is still one of the focus topics that are not open.
The second difficult period for coal-electricity
The data of coal-electricity preservation is enough to illustrate: the profit of the five-year power generation group reached 88.2 billion yuan in 2015, while in 2016 it only had 36.7 billion yuan, a sharp drop of 58.4%; in 2017, the pyroelectricity capitalEscort manila lost 13.2 billion yuan. Except for the national power group, all four electric power groups have lost 60% of the total. In 2018, the profit of national thermoelectric enterprises was 32.3 billion yuan, and the profit was still 43.8%. Now, Escort Whether manila can “move forward” in 2019 and whether it can “go well-off” in 2020 remains to be seen.
No denial, my country’s coal-electric clean-up development has achieved significant results, and the emissions of large and purified compounds have dropped rapidly, the efficiency of power generation has continued to improve, the intensity of carbon emissions has decreased, the water consumption and wastewater emissions have decreased year by year, and the degree of comprehensive application of solid waste has increased significantly. Coal-electric power generation technology and purification control technology have reached the world’s advanced level. However, today, the coal-electric industry is facing The kind of confusion is in the “second difficult period”, which is important manifestation:
First, the coal-electricity situation is unclear and social disputes are very large. Over the years, in the future dynamic structure, whether to have coal-electricity or what kind of color to play in the coal-electricity, the society The previous debate has always been endless, and there has never been a common understanding. The remote scenery of coal and electricity has no direction.
A faction represented by climate experts and new dynamic enterprises believes that in the clean environment of coal, the transformation of power cleansing is like moving a new home, without losing coal and electricity. href=”https://philippines-sugar.net/”>Sugar babyold sand development”, so we cannot buy renewable dynamics, because there is no space, the phenomenon of “three cages” in my countryIt is formed by the large scale of coal and electricity.
A faction represented by coal-electricity enterprises believes that it cannot be “demonized” coal-electricity. Our country is a coal-rich country with unstable renewable power and poor economicality. It is also necessary to rely on coal-electricity at the critical moment. Moreover, coal-electricity has achieved cleaning application through ultra-low emission reform, so it should still rely on coal-electricity and develop coal-electricity.
The second is that the power capacity is over, and the coal power price has plummeted due to market competition and new forces. my country’s electricity consumption has increased to the stage, with a growth of 13% on the 15th Five-Year Plan; a growth of 11.1% on the 12th Five-Year Plan; a growth of 5.7% on the 12th Five-Year Plan; a plan for the 10th Five-Year Plan is expected to grow by 3.6-4.8%. Today, my country’s power capacity is over, and the risk of power generation industry systems has increased.
The application hours of fire power have been declining from 5991 hours in 2004, and fell to 4165 hours in 2016. In 2017 and 2018, the company has been stable, reaching 4209 hours and 4361 hours respectively. However, the equipment application rate has dropped to 50%, and a large number of machines are in a shutdown.
At the same time, the green dynamic development program significantly accelerated, with wind, light, water, nuclear, gas and biological quality simultaneously, especially the “crazy” of wind, photovoltaics set off a “angry tide” and the proportion of clean power installations increased significantly. By the end of 2018, my country’s non-fossil dynamic engines had 776 million kilowatts, accounting for 40.8% of the total capacity; when the non-fossil dynamic power generation was 21,600 million kilowatts, accounting for 30.9% of the total power generation. Moreover, in recent years, new forces have been reduced in their growth and promoted the average price to the Internet, and the market competitiveness has increased significantly. Coal and electricity have to make the priority of cleaning power consumption.
In addition, with the advancement of new electricity reform in 2015 and the rapid expansion of the electricity development plan, the era of full-scale competition has begun to open, and coal and electricity have been in its forefront, and the price reduction wave of “Sugar daddy has swept the whole country. Coal and electric enterprises in some areas “can’t be opened or survived” and are deeply in preservation crisis.
Third is that due to the production capacity of coal, the coal price is “factory” and the fuel cost of coal power enterprises is high. In 2016, the economic growth of the Hong Kong economy began to stabilize, with coal demand stopping to rise, increasing by 0.5% asWhen the production and production capacity are limited, the raw coal production volume is only 3.6 billion yuan, and 9.4% of the land has dropped, resulting in a shortage of market supply and a sharp rebound in coal prices; the supply of coal in Guizhou, Northeast China and other places is “deadly dying”, and local authorities have to go out to limit the transportation and the provincial regulations. In 2017 and 2018, as TC:
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